11-16-14 Trade Plan

The markets had another week of up trending and stocks continue to push higher.  Specifically the NASDAQ is moving higher with the S&P and Russell having a week of consolidation.  We are still in a good environment for stock setups and still in a place of pushing winners and taking new signals as they come.  Like I said a few weeks ago this whole rally has been triggering lower time frame trends (which means quicker, more powerful trends) and they have been sustaining longer than most expect.

This is one of the reasons why I believe finding the time frame the trend has been/is being established on and just following the swing points is so effective.  It takes away any analytical emotion or uncertainty that may arise and leaves it up to you to either follow your rules or not, if that makes any sense.  That also includes removing any "fun" you may have trying to put the puzzle together with trend lines, fibs, overlays, chart patterns etc. and leaves you with much more consistency in my opinion.

11-09-14 Trade Plan

The market had a tight consolidation this week while stocks in good up trends continued higher.  Tuesday the NASDAQ and Russell put in a swing low against the 30 minute trend and it ended up being the holding point for the consolidation that took place.  Not putting in lower highs and lows allowed for stocks to continue to trend and trigger moves higher.  The S&P was steadily moving higher during the consolidation period in the NASDAQ and that likely prompted some strength in individual names as well.

11-02-14 Trade Plan

The 15 minute trend is still carrying this market with ease and that is typical in most of the sharp reversals we have seen during this 2 year rally.  The only index entries that you could have taken is against the 15 minute trend using one of the higher swing lows as a stop.  However this action in the indices is setting a good environment for stocks which is allowing more setups to trigger and actually follow through.  Whether or not the index is extended really doesn't matter, it's more important to be looking at setups individually.  Stocks can still trigger and have great trends while the index is just consolidating or even pulling back slightly.

10-26-14 Trade Plan

The market did exactly what I didn't think it was going to do, a strong V shape reversal back to the highs.  At first there were not many opportunities being triggered but towards the end of the week things were starting to be put in motion.  This part of the move that we've already seen is a part I didn't mind missing at all.  To have participated in that move you would have had to be picking at a bottom after a daily chart lower low looking for a short term intraday trend (15m it ended up being) to hold and carry the market against the bigger trends, and as beautiful as the reversal ended up being that just isn't my style and I would come at it the same way if it were to happen again.

10-19-14 Trade Plan

With lower highs and lows the market did what it does best in downtrends, make bigger moves lower than it does higher.  The volatility is bringing back a lot of very short term opportunities in both price directions and the actual volatility of the options.  Getting in some puts or any long IV/short delta option positions before a nice one or two day decline can really pay off especially if you have the timing required to trade the weekly cycles.  Bonds and volatility ETFs were trading great this week and after a few weeks of lack of opportunity with long stock positions it was good to change focus and make money with it.

In my opinion we are past the point of V shape straight back up reversal, this is going to take at least a month or two of chop and consolidation if we are going to reverse back up.  Which would make sense as the market waits on the only fundamental piece of information it cares about, whether or not we see more QE.  That consolidation could happen at these levels or it could happen 10% lower, as long as you are following major swing points and trend you know which direction to expect the big moves and where to define your risk if you want to trade it.

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