04-26-15 Trade Plan

The NASDAQ had a great week after reclaiming the intraday trends and making new highs.  I wanted to share this chart that goes through the simple analysis I was doing during this week -- NASDAQ 65m chart.  In my opinion it's a great learning opportunity for intraday trend analysis.  Looking back we can see that gap down from Friday (4/17) was erased Monday (4/20) and Tuesday (4/21) as price attempted to reclaim the 65m trend with an equal high.  At that point I considered that lower low from Friday (4/17) to be a shakeout and buyers needed a higher low to work with along the rising 65m trend to regain control.  That is what we saw before the large move higher (4/22).  To keep this in context, all of this was happening above YTD break even, above daily support areas, and with a rising 50 day average.  To take it one step further, in a weekly bull market.  While this was happening there were some great looking long setups to trade and that's what I was doing all week.  All of this was tweeted out while it was happening.

04-19-15 Trade Plan

NASDAQ was doing a good job holding the 30m trend until the gap down we saw Friday.  This gap down showed me that the range bound market is still in effect and buy low sell high is still working for my time frame.  Something else I noticed during this week is that the strongest intraday trends are happening in stocks that are trying to form some kind of bottom or come out of a sideways range.  Since I trade intraday trends I can't ignore that just because the daily charts are not in a strong uptrend.  If the market is dictating that's where I need to be for my time frame then I'm going to listen to it and make my trades there.  Also trading this way doesn't violate any of my rules, it's just different from what has been working for a long time.  I care about where the big moves are happening.  For a while that has been very strong up trends in growth stocks but it does feel like the market is starting to look elsewhere for new candidates, so I can't ignore that like I could when growth was going insane.

04-12-15 Trade Plan

After price was unable to put in a lower low or go negative on the year, buyers retook control with a 30m trend that got above the previous swing high at $107.  This intraday trend is aligned with the daily time frame and there are some stocks that are looking good to participate in a move higher.  That is what you want to see when a possible trend is emerging otherwise it's just the index trying to rally with no back up or leadership.

This is a little off topic but I wanted to bring it up.  Apparently last week's job report had a lot of people irrationally thinking that the bull market had ended, spreading fear, panic, day to day noise.  I just wanted to show the mark of a bull market in my opinion.  It's a rising 50 week average in the strongest index - QQQ weekly chart.  The flash crash, the Greek riots, all that happened along a rising 50 week average.  The last bull market through 2008?  Same thing - SPY weekly chart.  Well what about the bear markets?  It's a declining 50 week average.  SPY weekly chart 2008 crash.  Just that simple filter of a rising/declining 50 week will let you know if a market environment is changing or not.  Even the Russell through it's consolidation last year had a rising 50 week the entire time.  Along with monitoring swing points, using multiple time frames, and managing risk appropriately you aren't going to be caught off guard with a bull market just ending over the weekend.  Remember this is a 50 week average, not day, not intraday, week.  The weekly chart always stays in the back of my mind no matter how short term I get, which is why if I'm looking for short term downside I'll give targets or expectations and looking for upside I don't because that is the state of the market right now.  I know most of the readers here know this but for any one that needs perspective on this subject, there it is.

04-05-15 Trade Plan

Not much has changed since the post last weekend.  Russell 2000 is still holding higher highs and lows along a 130m trend.  The NASDAQ and S&P have lower highs, equal lows, and a rising 50 day average.  It's hard to get overly bearish if bears can't get a lower low and the Russell is still moving higher.  One thing the bears have going for them is lower highs, equal lows and that typically means the force is building against the support area and will eventually break.  Well that also works in reverse too if every single time bears try to break that area and can't, buyers will eventually take the reigns and break the previous high in an attempt to get a trend going.  When in doubt just follow the swing points and relevant trend for your time frame.

03-29-15 Trade Plan

After the declines we saw last week, the NASDAQ is still hanging onto the previous daily swing low which is about 1.5% above YTD break even.  The 50 day average is rising and the Russell 2000 is still leading with higher highs and lows, also with a rising 50 day.  If anything is going to pull this market back up to make new highs it will be the Russell 2000, because this is the leader with the cleanest up trend right now.

The flip side, or the weak point in the indices is the S&P.  The previous high we just put in was not equal like NASDAQ or higher like Russell, it was lower.  Now price is trying to hang onto the previous low, which makes a lower high & equal low.  One good close below $204 in the SPY would put in a pattern of lower highs and lows; and put it in negative YTD performance.  This isn't the end of the world though, just means market isn't ready for more buying but at the same time don't be complacent.  Just follow the price and the trend.

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