12-21-14 Trade Plan

Since I last posted the markets have corrected to a key level at $100 on the QQQ, held the level, and now working on a v shape reversal.  This isn't surprising to me at all given how far away the previous daily swing point was at (10/15).  It gave the bulls a lot of breathing room to put in a higher low and that $100 level was begging to be bought by institutions.  Now that they have done it we need to see it hold and continue with an intraday trend.  The Russell has quickly become my favorite index on watch after the false breakdown below key support and YTD breakeven into the 50 day and swift bounce breaking above $118, which was already a trigger level I have been watching for weeks.  If we get an intraday trend going here above $118 then there is a great probability we have liftoff to new highs.

12-07-14 Trade Plan

The market continues to uptrend very strongly and stocks continue to be in a good environment.  Obviously this kind of straight up action in the indices cannot go on forever but it can go on for longer than most think it can and pretty much already has.  If the indices start to loose the momentum they have had the swing points will signal that when the time comes.  For now they remain in an uptrend and there is no evidence to the contrary.

11-30-14 Trade Plan

It's a great time to know how to follow trends.  Just look at the dollar, oil, gold, stocks all holding strong trends.  Oil falling out of bed was not random, it has been in a strong downtrend (objectively measured by the 65m time frame) for 4 months now.  Some call it capitulation or reaction to whatever news came out, I call it still in a downtrend.  Nothing has changed, until oil breaks it's 65m trend with in tact swing points there is a downtrend.  Same with bonds, the daily chart has been the backbone trend for this all year long.  Every intraday trend that got started had the daily chart behind it with higher highs and lows and a rising 50 day moving average, nothing has changed there and now we see a new intraday trend getting started.  Surprising right?

The point is a) don't fight trends b) have an objective measuring system c) keep it simple.

11-23-14 Trade Plan

Once again the markets held the up trends.  The only market having a bit of trouble is the Russell 2000 as usual but it is holding above the key support level at $115.  The others are all holding in a consistent 30 minute time frame trend with higher highs and lows.  There is just no arguing with it, also we still have fresh setups triggering with a good environment for stocks.  This slow grind higher through November in the indices has been the rising tide for stock setups and it continues for now.

11-16-14 Trade Plan

The markets had another week of up trending and stocks continue to push higher.  Specifically the NASDAQ is moving higher with the S&P and Russell having a week of consolidation.  We are still in a good environment for stock setups and still in a place of pushing winners and taking new signals as they come.  Like I said a few weeks ago this whole rally has been triggering lower time frame trends (which means quicker, more powerful trends) and they have been sustaining longer than most expect.

This is one of the reasons why I believe finding the time frame the trend has been/is being established on and just following the swing points is so effective.  It takes away any analytical emotion or uncertainty that may arise and leaves it up to you to either follow your rules or not, if that makes any sense.  That also includes removing any "fun" you may have trying to put the puzzle together with trend lines, fibs, overlays, chart patterns etc. and leaves you with much more consistency in my opinion.

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