07-27-14 Trade Plan

We are still moving in an uptrend with tech leading the way.  NASDAQ is the strongest part of the market and the Russell is the weakest.  The Russell hasn't been in an uptrend for about a month now while the other indices continue making new highs.  That isn't a problem if you are trading the NASDAQ and it's components though.  We just finished the 10th week of this huge move, straight up I might add with stock setups playing out the whole way up.  Over the past two weeks or so we have been seeing less setups playing out and more stocks failing, which isn't an assumption on anything just something to note.  As long as that 130 minute supporting trend with higher highs and lows is in place on the S&P and NASDAQ, I will continue to open every blog post with "we are in an uptrend" and trade accordingly.


07-20-14 Trade Plan

The market is still in a strong uptrend and nothing is getting in it's way.  Even I wanted to see some kind of pull back during the week due to the lack of setups and I thought we were seeing one, but again as soon as we touched that rising 130m trend we bounced right off of it and that's where we are now.  The Russell is still not looking good though with 130m and 65m trend both heading lower and it's now negative on the year with big resistance at $115.


07-13-14 Trade Plan

The indices are still moving in an uptrend and have not been invalidated.  Although the Russell had a bit of a falling out this week, the other three main indices are still holding their supporting trends very well (whether looking at 130m or 65m does not matter as of now).  When the Russell started to see selling pressure, you saw that trigger some momentum names to the downside, similar to what we were seeing in early April but without NASDAQ stocks.  NASDAQ and it's stocks held up very well and are actually the strongest part of the market still.  My entire watch list for this week is basically NASDAQ stocks (MA, IBM, AAPL), no small cap momentum like names (P, YELP, CRM, etc.)

07-06-14 Trade Plan

The market continues to move in an uptrend.  Throughout the shortened week we saw the 15 minute trends in the indices that started last Friday continue into the close on Thursday and that is where we are now.  Many up trends in individual names continue to emerge and play out across many sectors, this is a healthy market for now.  It has been for going on 8 weeks now and I have been a broken record in these weekly trade plans.  The only warning sign we have seen throughout this entire 8 weeks is the RSI/MACD divergence in the SPY and the market blew through that.  This created a failed divergence and is bullish.  Don't look for patterns, look for trends.

YTD Performance - Setting The Tone

If you follow my charts, you probably notice there is an orange line that looks like it is placed in a random spot.  This is what I call the YTD break even line and it is where the instrument closed out the previous year.  Not many in the technical analysis space track this but the market as a whole understands it.  Whether it is something checked at the end of each week/month or just something that sits in the subconscious, it is aware of it and it is powerful enough to sway people's judgement.  Charts in the positive territory have a more easy going vibe to them like MSFT this year since any decline would just be giving back gains.  Charts in negative territory have a fearful vibe like LNKD this year since any decline would be loosing even more.  At least that is what the charts tell me.  Hopefully I can explain that a little better here.

What it does best for me is put the chart into context for the big picture and adds personality to each instrument you are tracking.  For example Facebook (FB) was one of the momentum stocks that held up best when the large sell offs were occurring in April/May 2014.  I believe this is because of where this price action was happening in relation to how it had performed for the year, which is such a huge concept for me and defines how I look at sentiment.

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